台灣的疫情增溫中. 祝台灣的讀者們健康平安.
這周末進了城, 對於一些事物有了一些想法(如, 為什麼Chipotle的東西百吃不厭, 進城一定會想要吃他們家的食物?) 週四的時候會分享.
🌻http://xn--farfetch-9k0m444a0n4he6dutj2w6f.com/(FTCH)於上週發表財報了. Morgan Stanley給的評語是"High Quality (高品質的) Business On Sale(拍賣中)". 有興趣的讀者可以研究看看.
🌻快思慢想的作者新書在下周會於Amazon開始販售:
https://www.amazon.com/Noise-Human-Judgment-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0316451401/ref=tmm_hrd_title_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=
"In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions."
"Wherever there is judgment, there is noise."
-->非常同意這句話. 這其實也是我一開始盡量不在財報結果裡面放入個人看法的原因之一, 因為我希望大家自己去做閱讀後, 自己做判斷, 畢竟培養自己的判斷力, 是投資很重要的一環.
🌻Jerry Yang對Zoom Video (ZM)的看法:
"In my view, by launching an app store of sorts, Zoom can create an ecosystem that is a defensible barrier to competition."
印象中沒錯的話, Crowdstrike(CRWD)也是有這樣的做法.
🌻綠色能源熱潮中值得投資的冷門股
https://on.wsj.com/2RYe1mE
🌻新發現的網站, 專門講美國車市. 網站創辦人在車市超過20年經驗. 目前覺得他對車市的看法挺令人啟發. 像這篇他的議題是, 當車商都在抱怨目前的車輛存貨不夠時, 是不是也因為是如此, 他們目前的獲利比較高? (供給與需求的概念). 而如果供需恢復正常的話, 他們的獲利還會比較高嗎?
"Broadly speaking, these conditions reflect what might be regarded as the best of all possible worlds for any business–high demand and limited supply. Even better, new research from Kelley Blue Book suggests that consumers understand the current conditions. They expect to see less selection and higher prices when they shop for a car. Sixty percent of new vehicle buyers say they plan to buy a vehicle despite less selection and higher prices.
It should also be noted that the current highly profitable nature of the car business in the current moment doesn’t largely owe to disciplined management decisions on the part of dealers. Rather, it’s a positive outcome of COVID-19, the chip shortage and a host of other factors that have brought a level of equilibrium to demand and supply that many car business veterans like me have never seen in our careers.
And yet, it seems like many dealers are longing to return to the way things used to be. They would feel better if they had higher numbers of new and used vehicles on the ground. They would prefer to suffer less discomfort and stress from current reconditioning backlogs and the need to convince some customers to order vehicles or purchase the less-desirable vehicle that’s available on your lot."
"From now on, when dealers ask me when the chip shortage might end, and new and used vehicle supplies will return to normal, I’ll respond with a different question: Are you sure that’s what you really want?"
Source: https://www.vauto.com/learning-center/blog-dale-pollak-all/missing-the-import-of-current-retail-automotive-conditions
Pictures: earningswhisper.com, Amazon.com
demand forecasting 在 Forecasting Demand 的推薦與評價
Businesses can improve demand forecasting with their demand functions using the future values of determinant variables in those demand functions. Forecasts for ... ... <看更多>