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financial forecasting 在 李怡 Facebook 的最佳貼文
Living on in fear (Lee Yee)
Hong Kong people have been living on in fear. Contrary to the saying that since the implementation of the National Security Law, violence has been curbed, whereby peace has been restored and normality has returned, everyone, including law enforcement officials and those who have shown support for the law on orders, has been living on in fear. One of my friends, a journalist, said if one craves living on and working as usual, one should stay oblivious of the National Security Law, which will bring calmness and transcend fear and emotional entanglements. Contrariwise, getting overawed amounts to helping those in power that enacted the National Security Law gain their purpose. Yet sadly, by and large, the Chinese Communist Party(CCP) has had its way instantly.
Human fear is constituted by two elements: experiences and unknowable future.
Take the pandemic that has been ravaging across the globe and resurged in Hong Kong as an example. Firstly, COVID-19 keeps the world in fear because of the horrible experiences that it spreads fast and extensively without a trace, with the contracted and carriers showing no symptoms initially, and sustains a pretty long incubation period. Secondly, its resurgence and scale are both unpredictable. Precisely, the experiences and the unknowability have put a halt to the Book Fair, which was supposed to start tomorrow, and made all economists incapable of forecasting the world, China and Hong Kong’s economy. So people live in fear, for they do not have a clue how their lives are impacted by the economy.
Even though it is said that China’s legal system is being perfected day by day, that extradition to China is not hair-raising, that there will be very few cases in which the suspects are extradited to China, that the Chief Executive will keep tabs on the cases, that most cases will be heard by Hong Kong judges…those tranquilizers, which cannot pacify Hong Kong people, cannot even sedate the advocates who put forward the above pretexts for the experiences that there are a lot of uncertainties, flexibility and possible manipulation with National Security Law making breaches of law unknowable. Experiences and unknowability bring about fear.
Under a system in which state power is unchallengeable, the objective of enacting laws is to get the people intimidated. A despotism can definitely do so if it wants to slap the people down.
Sanctions from the U.S. could be actualized, but its intensity and scale are unknowable. If they are applied to big banks in Hong Kong, it will a disaster. Based on experiences and unknowability, officials and the pro-establishment camp are bound to be frightened.
The overwhelming majority of Hong Kong investors chose to put money into Hong Kong in the past for good experiences and knowability. In terms of experiences, business operations were not bothered by politics, and were benefited from the simple taxation, free economy and foreign exchange. When it comes to knowability, the implementation of common law and case law were not totally dependent on judges’ interpretations on laws and were free from political manipulation, therefore were comparatively predictable. It was not without reason that other cities were unable to squeeze in among the three international financial hubs known for adopting common law - New York, London and Hong Kong.
Since the National Security Law taking effect, not only has the number of emigrants increased, but there have also been signs that foreign investments will haul off while Facebook and Google were rumored yesterday to consider withdrawing from Hong Kong in the wake of the fact that quite a number of foreign internet companies have announced suspension of dealing with requests from the HKSAR government for users’ data. If these two most influential global companies pull out, the unknowability of the future economy of Hong Kong will become knowable pessimism.
Freedom from fear is most fundamental among the Four Freedoms proposed by the late U.S. President Franklin Roosevelt. Being free from fear is a prerequisite for freedom from fear of saying something wrong, freedom of religion and freedom of pursuing a better life.
In view of the experiences with the CCP and Hong Kong communist regime, and the uncertainties of the articles of the National Security Law, Hong Kong people and investors cannot stay away from fear. The protesters on the frontlines last year also admitted that they feared, but they went head-on against it for carrying on the movement, crystalizing in the end a new Hong Kong spirit named “mutual destruction”, which means being free from fear in protests. The primaries of the pan-democracy camp last weekend showcased to the CCP and Hong Kong communist regime that thousands of Hong Kong people would still come forward with a big NO even if a machete is pointed at them.
financial forecasting 在 Hazel Chen Facebook 的最讚貼文
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